Recent content by lariati

If you lose to Biden you don't get another chance. Anyone who still supports Trump is moron who wants to lose. Give me a break. There is no way anyone that still supports Trump has any money to trade. You are either unemployed or work at a gas station. Trump is going to look like such a has...

For me, the biggest "aha" moment is when you realize 90% of the information about trading is simply wrong. There is such an asymmetry between sharing wrong information vs right/profitable information it has to be that way. If something is popular it is wrong and useless because only wrong...

It is really disturbing, basically the psychology of totalitarianism. If you support the "wrong" party you are "evil". I have just rejoined Twitter and I think they have made some improvements to the algorithm. It seems like my feed is pushing me interesting things after rejecting things that...

I love Excel but it is just not designed for this. There is just really no reason to not use Pandas in python and/or a Jupyter notebook. Pandas was practically designed to handle trading data and is like Excel without a GUI. It can do pivot tables or plot table data, anything you could do in...

It "works" because you are not defining precisely what doesn't work". That line is repeatedly violated at the start of the chart and then massively violated in the middle. If this "works" what exactly doesn't work? This is just muddled thinking. You can move that line all over the chart and...

I think people are seriously overreacting to BRICS right now. Overreacting to Lula. Lula is going to be an economic disaster and China, India and Russia is just not going to work as an alliance long term. I would be worried if OpenAI and chatGPT was Indian or Chinese. America might be past...

Hedge funds have been using ML for decades at this point. AI already disrupted trading a long time ago. Language models just don't have much to do with trading. Trading just isn't using that much language. I have done some project management in the past and in contrast, I can already...

This code defines a Java class called VIXHedging, which calculates hedge ratios for a portfolio consisting of VIX and SPX options. The program connects to a TWS (Trader Workstation) server and retrieves contract details for SPX options at different strikes. It then uses a VIX pricing model to...

I am sorry, I didn't realize you are a java programmer. What year are we in again? Python or a custom language with chatGPT. Come on!

Regression in machine learning is predicting a continuous value as opposed to classification, identifying which category something belongs to. So you are correct you would use it to try to predict the value of the next step. You can see all the various flavors of regression on the...

That is really cool. It hadn't really occurred to me that was outputting a price hah. I would actually rather not get it in my head that I could actually trade options with this. This is really a perfect thread of why I don't trade options. It is crazy to me that people trade options without...

Credit Suisse collapsing will be a surprise to basically no one. I am watching what happens with LOB, CUBI, KEY, MCB. I wouldn't be shocked if any or all of those don't survive. Like most sectors, we probably have too many banks anyway. I must have 7 or 8 banks I could open a checking...

Yo, listen up, got a story to tell, About a time when GPT-3, it didn't fare so well, People tried to predict the stock market rise, But let me tell you, it wasn't so wise. You see, the market's complex, it's ever-changing, And GPT-3's knowledge, it's got a range, But when it comes to stocks...

I just started messing with chatGPT4. Here is the version it gives for the below as a python function. import numpy as np def heston_char_function(t, w, v_bar, v_0, s_0, r, lam, theta, sigma): i_w = 1j * w g = (lam - r * i_w) / (lam + r * i_w) C = (((r * i_w - lam * theta) /...

People I talk to in general don't seem to care that there is basically no evidence and no motive. If you watch true crime from 30 years ago the prosecution would have never even attempted this case without gathering more evidence but they don't need to now. I just can't believe someone can be...