Recent content by jeffalvinson

I use this chart in the post to move out of very long term 401k money when there is a monthly close -1.5% (or greater) below the 40mma. Most Bear drops are -45% to -55% (-50% average) below the highest peak value of the last Bull Market. So in the current case, 3400 minus -45% to -55% is 1,870...

Based on many decades of living this scenario, the market is at the point of demarcation determining Bull versus Bear market. If we have a monthly closing candle on March 31st, -1.5% below (or greater) the 40 month moving average (brown line), this technical measurement has lead to a Bear...

It took me 9 years, 30,000 hours and ten's of thousands of dollars to develop what your looking for. Do you seriously think anyone is just going to hand that over?

Could you please share with us the real reasons?

I was hoping for a more in depth answer. Like in the case of: 1: The bear market of 2000-2002, where earnings could no longer sustain stock prices. 2: or the Crisis of 2008-2009 where subprime mortgage bonds took down world economies. What specific event (or events) "this time," will be...

Here is the million dollar question for all you knowledgeable gentlemen: "What chain of events will it take to turn this 10 year Bull Market into a Bear Market?"

We are right at a triple top. Will the SP500 cleanly breakout above the top, or will it fail? [SP500, 1 Year, Daily Candles]

That's a really good question and you may not like the answer but I have learned to live with it. Because I am looking for a discounted entry with respect to the closing price of the option, I only average about 7 to 8 trades a month. Your correct, that is part of the higher W/L. I do use a...

Here is another interesting thing about day trading options versus giving the trade 2 to 3 days to play out. Per every 100 trades that I complete (Sell or Stop), here is the time it takes to create a modest (+25% to +30%) profit: Trades that complete on Day 1: 44 Trades that complete on Day 2...

In the last 21 years of trading mathematical mechanical systems, I have traded and forward (actual trade) tested every possible combination of profit goal versus stop amount, and each combination was traded and forward (actual trade) tested several years per combination. The combination that...

The spread problem is why I only trade SPY options: .01 to .02 Bid to Ask Spread. Look for option strikes that have volume of 10,000 or >.

You asked for my trade tomorrow and I kindly replied with that information you wanted, and now you are asking me to go away? Ok

"Thank you for the kind words." It took an extreme intellect to compose your kind post. Here's my trade for tomorrow: Trade Date 06-06; SPY (expires June 21) JUN285C Option Today's Data: Previous Close = 1.70; Open = 2.21; High = 2.33; Low= 1.60; Today's Close = 2.30 Bracket Order: Buy Limit=...

Just like I pointed out in December 2018, this long term bull market is being supported by its 40 month moving average. The only thing that will stop this bull market is a monthly closing candle definitively below its 40 month moving average. That is really all that matters. The rest is noise...

In the decades that I have been trading, our group of traders (family and friends) use to keep track of the correlation between: 1: Pre-market futures Up: Dow= +100 Dow / SP500= +10, versus closing prices on that day; Bull Market= closed Up 70% (or >) of the time. / Bear Market= closed Down <...