Yes keep an eye on USD currency, as today rally most like is some big players purchasing betting that tomorrow economic release is bearish on USD...but i doubt , just me or there is someone out there believe tomorrow release will favor a strengthening USD?
No matter how you plan, its still markets :) Thats why we have risk management etc As we can't always be correct and surprise in markets is depends on the individual how they view the market and how hard they push them self to be accurate and some other factors. You might be always winning on...
Crude oil going up without events and fundamentals are not favoring, the system which forecasted to make landfall on Mexico doesnt really disrupt supplies if it goes according to forecasted track. Once speculations is off (ie: system fades and more build on supplies, things are going to get back...
There are those who shorted between 81-82USD price so its consider a good deal for them, these are fund-managers (mostly technical) who go for mid-term trading not those who expect an invest term to last for years, dont think they will risk it by not taking profit and wait it for fall far lower...
From what i see , its just large short covering and some aggressive buyers getting bargains. Just look at the volume, upside wont last with current condition unless there is some events that will support the price. Yes tomorrow will be a interesting trading day for crude oil.