Article on ivestopedia about how something as simple as Cramers Mad Money makes the market inneffecient in case anybody cares..
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/madmoney.asp
I think I see what you're saying. Most trades are placed for a reason and can be attributed to some belief about the stock. Wether its a technical reason, a complex or simple buy/sell program, a stop order..etc. Its not like people are putting on a blind fold and hitting the buy/sell button here...
Maybe if we had an example....
from 11:00 to 11:01 the following orders are entered for AIG stock on the NYSE......
Joe the daytrader sees a nice spring off R1 and decides to buy 1000
Grandma sally has a forced liquidation to raise cash for her IRA distribution. 150 sold
Goldmen...
Yes, obviously long term it cant be random because it reflects corporate earnings but its the intraday fluctuations that seem to me like a random walk down wall street..
BTW, I want to be wrong in this thinking but am convinced that collectively traders actions make for random price action...
Because you're a tape reader and can read the specialist. I agree that is an edge but I think that is the only non-random aspect of the market because one person is controlling most trading in a stock.
Can you do the same thing with nasdaq stocks?
Also, I'm not necessarily saying you...
But it has to be random because everybody is making there trading decisions individually right?
Its not as if half the traders out there call each other at 12:00 and agree to start buying leaving the other half in the dust.
Would it make sense if I said I agree that markets are not efficient but they are random. Meaning yes an equity may be mispriced but you have no way to know when price will get back in line and you have no way of knowing how far price will continue into inefficient territory. :confused:
I think you're speaking from a tape reading perspective in which I agree but I am not including that in my statement because I dont think I will ever become a tape reader..
Can I still trade successfully with that perception of the markets.
What I do know is that stocks trade in certain ranges (obviously GE wont go from 35 to 60 in one tick) and the movements are relatively stable from one price point to the next on an intra-day basis but the combination of...