Recent content by i960

What’s the new rule btw? Is it exchange related or something else? You still in the cocoa arb @TraDaToR ? I’ve been long still since we were last discussing it.

Indeed - which means when the real bear market does arrive it’s going to be endless short squeezes on the way down. That is if it’s ever allowed to actually happen. The powers that be seem all in on this one.

Based on technicals in CC right around here I’d be inclined to start seeing some resistance in NY and as such a chance for the spread to start coming in. I mean we’re like what 3SD out on a monthly?

I agree and to be honest I see no reason (other than the obvious of it could actually get more extreme) not to fade this. I'll probably start a position on Sunday/Monday, holding time months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-25/u-s-cocoa-buyers-to-get-a-taste-of-africa-on-record-premium “This has never happened before, this is extraordinary,” said Jonathan Parkman, co-head of agriculture at London-based brokerage Marex Spectron Group and who has been in the market...

Can also be a verb too but it’s quite specific. http://www.crofsblogs.typepad.com/english/2005/08/effect_as_a_ver.html

So your Nostradamus trade works for you and you see it cranking seriously in your direction with no pullbacks. Do you just sit there and *not add* to the position that's clearly going your way? If you say "yes I don't add" then you don't actually have real conviction in that trade. If you say...

Rolling dec (3days before exp) monthly arb w/ 2+3SD regression channels: How are you hedging the GBP leg, spot or futures?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-17/end-of-era-for-cocoa-as-sucden-boss-stops-trading-after-50-years

This is complete nonsense. You're presuming to know exactly what a given instrument is going to do when you enter your "full position." This might blow your mind, but people averaging in or adding to trades that are proving themselves are *also* using stops. Your hardliner methodology disposes...

That’s precisely what I’ve been saying. Check the earlier post I made. People are conflating a falling market with sellers being in control and I’m arguing that it’s instead buyers who are in control due to the bargain demand element.

The side *causing* the other side to be aggressive is in control. On the surface it may appear that the aggressor side is in control because they’re crossing the spread and hence moving price but you don’t even need a single trade for the market to move. If sellers have to move to where the...

Seems appropriate. Just the tip?

Looks like a minor bull trap to me to be honest (as it looks a bit obvious). Wouldn't be surprised to see ES test 2600 again before finally trying for 2705 but we'll see.

Of course what they really want is for the Yuan to be the reserve currency and USD hegemony to end. I’m quite certain they’ve got a long term plan on how they think they can make that happen and IMO are going to try and economically “island” the US to get there. China’s involvement in South...