Recent content by hrokling

Each successful trader is a unique, pretty snowflake...

We're all parasites in the markets...

Forex is not a bad market. But in my opinion it is the hardest market to trade successfully. And I've traded stocks, commodities, bonds, crypto as well as FX over 25 years.

Tesla has broken up through resistance - I find it likely it will set new ATHs frequently going forward.

Most importantly: Buy the dip. The Federal Reserve and the powers that be always saves the market because the alternative is 401k accounts blown to pieces with no pensions for anyone. Too big to fail is real. Learn about moral hazard and accept that there is no morale in the markets. Markets...

Spread trades... without stop loss, and concentrating capital into one correlated strategy/trade. The examples did not adhere to proper risk management.

So, I wonder then who's left in Jun 20 after everyone has rolled into Jul 20. Volume might drop off sooner than before.

USO changed its profile to further out in the curve, and I interpret the messages from Asian products that they are either pulling out or doing the same thing. This should reduce some of the rollover effects WTI has seen for fifteen years. Question is: How will this affect the contango going...

How long until those are the last price traded and not daily change... EDIT: Well, change up the contract month by a month.

LOL - there will be a million people looking to buy oil "cheap" at 10 usd. Maybe @Baron can place a banner educating people who has not traded oil before about contango, storage and the lack of free lunches.

No dislikes with the optimal f approach, it's mathematically correct :) It is however applicable for systematic trading where you are able to calculate the inputs, and my trading has been on and off over the years and partly discretionary or through allocation so it's not been possible/relevant.

Yes - non-correlated strategies with their own allocation with periodic rebalancing makes a lot of sense. It's been so long since I read it (and I don't practise it now), but I seem to recall there was also a portfolio-level approach. Was that in his second book?

I looked into this about 10-12 years ago. To calculate Optimal f you need past trading history. If you have a system then you can also use historic trades, although I would certainly add a cushion as your biggest loss is always in the future. Lastly, I would personally trade more conservatively...

Please read this post published at Seeking Alpha from a few days ago regarding USO and the supercontango for WTI-contracts. This could save you some money. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337417-uso-strongly-decline-due-to-roll-yield The Dec 20 WTI contract settled at 33.82 on Friday. If you...