Recent content by efficiency

VIX is just the OEX. Rise to 22 but capped at 30 is a "window". Yes, low probability of success. Portfolio "insurance". Personally, I use the 14 day average true range on the S&P 500. Still market cap weighted but broader than the OEX. It's volatility has peaked. September has a...

She wrote a book around 1988 entitled Dividends Don't Lie. Yield might be a a reasonable gauge of "valuation" but dividends haven't competed with bond yields since 1948, there's the issue of double taxation, and personally, dividends are nuisance in terms of Schedule B. Nevertheless, Rest In...

Debt ceiling has been raised (73) times since 1962. Drama

You're not taking into account the CBOE's synthetic "securities" at various strikes and expirations vis-a-vis the NYSE and inventory merchandising. It all comes out when in the moneys are assigned. Regardless, the stock is in la la land.

Pre-mature shorting is akin to pre-mature ejaculation. Wall Street's function is moving paper (until there is no demand OR they run out of inventory).

Front-running aside. poker players don't play with their cards face out.

Buffett made his first billion in 1982. Big deal here in Nebraska. That was then, this is now:

Bounces is a bear market? Akin to picking nickels off the rail in the face of an oncoming freight train. Is it's whistle blowing? To some I suppose, a sport. Addicted to random awards, is not rewarding in the long term. The idea is to replicate over and over. For those that adhere to...

Buffett's recent purchases of Apple, DaVita, and Teva were definitely shreeeeeewd. 1. When you're 88 years old, value investing for the long term is what? 2. Ever figure out why you see constant Geico ads on TV?

What's funny is neither of you were long Celgene. Few rational "investors" would have since it's peak close was August 31st.

Nope, a front-runner. One of Buffett's fuck ups. Shall we discuss Munsingwear, US Air, or.........let sleeping dogs lie?

Buffett bought 75 million shares of Apple in 2017. He bought an additional 165 million shares in the first quarter of 2018. The Apple X, in a saturated market, is what, $1,000 per unit? It's what we call value investing for the long term.

Doubtful Buffett would come up in a spellchecker. Teva got a pop on Mylan Lab's pricing. It's now back to business. Low margin/high turnover. You might ponder Warren's purchase of Apple, with fanfare, at the price point he entered, and at age 88. The long term. You might also "google"...

It's been 8 years since I posted this thread. What's changed? Not psychology. Not the myriad of species. But, Mister Market appears to have shot his wad for the next few years. Secular change? We'll see. Note, I did write "appears". It's fascinating how many are calling a "bottom" IMO...