Recent content by dwpeters

+12.7% for 2011, with a max drawdown of 8.5% and StDev of 13%. Very disappointing to me as return and DD are my worst since 2008/early 2009 and I think I am a much better trader now. I did make some significant changes this year and some learning associated with that but I think it will payoff...

I haven't done Monte Carlo so I can't advise on that, but an alternative approach is to try to mitigate the extent of the worst drawdown. This can be done through equity curve timing (for example scale back or stop trading when your equity curve is below it's moving average) or simply reducing...

Maybe so, but that sounds a lot like the people that promote buy and hold as a strategy, who say the market will always come back. I trade because I don't take it for granted that the market will come back soon enough for my taste. So I don't take it for granted with my trading strategies...

I think science is not always so rigorous. My approach fits this criteria: From Wikipedia: Certainly I let results speak for themselves, and when they contradict my expectations in a significant way, as happened to the OP, I change my expectations, and my approach. Don

Possibly very scientific. If something has happened 700 times out of 1000, and is based on a sound strategy and not just data mining, then it is reasonable to expect a roughly 70% chance of it happening the next time. That is a positive expectation. That does not mean that this expectation...

I have a hard time predicting a trend or trading range in advance though they are easy enough to recognize after the fact. I keep my trading real simple. I have a long term (months) trend following strategy and a short term (days) counter trend strategy among others that I just run all the...

I think this comes about as close to answering your questions as anything:

The screener at portfolio123.com can do this.

I assumed he was flagged because his account fell below the min. If he is trading without even knowing basic rules, then I find it hard to believe that he was not losing.

The question isn't where to trade without the rule (maybe outside the US?), it's how to trade with the rule. It's a dumb rule but if you are losing money day trading, then you shouldn't be day trading. Trade a longer time frame. If you continue to lose, then at least you may lose your money...

XLQ from qmatix offers an Excel add in that can pull a variety of market data from a variety of sources, including Yahoo. It costs on the order of $100 and I've found it to be well worth the money.

Well depending on which pro's you are referring to, this may or may not be much of a challenge. I have spent some time on the Bogleheads forum and they often think of mutual fund managers as "the pro's". They are professional but generally not traders, and there is quite a difference. Another...

A couple pages back he said he was going to take the quarter off from posting to focus on his strategies. He said he plans to be back by the end of the year.

Does it test well? Equity curve timing has the same issues as market timing. Whipsaws, catch trends late, what worked in the past may not work in the future, etc. That doesn't invalidate the approach. Comparing the equity curve of various strategies and trading the top performers is a valid...

You contradict yourself (or maybe your alter ego of LuckyPutanski contradicted Michael21?). You say that newbie traders can't be successful yet you think you have a plan that will make them so and that you will somehow share in these profits? All the psychological traps in trading will just...