Recent content by David Aronson

I do hope you will find some value in it. I'm open to all feedback. David Aronson

I tried to post this before but it never showed up. Yes the footnotes in the Introduction are wrong from 14-18 and get back on track at 19. It was my fault not the publishers. It is due to be corrected if the first printing of 3000 sells out. Thanks for mentioning it. David Aronson

Hi You are correct. This error was spotted about 2 weeks before the publication date too late to do anything about it. And in the end it was my fault. The notes do get back in gear by #19 I think and the error has been noted to the publisher and will be corrected if they go into a second...

I would agree with you. Statistics comes it at the later stages of the scientific method. First, one must proposed a hypothesis which is born of a mysterious mixture of past experience, in this case with markets, inductive generalization, insight. However, this process is starting to change...

I have been both researcher and trader. At the moment I trade commodities according to several trading systems whose performance has been uninspiring. The systems were acquired from a developer with the realization that they would need improvement. My efforts along these lines involve using data...

Hi - may I ask what type of statistical test you apply to the back-test results you obtain? And what sort of test statistic do you use. As you known from I book I used the mean return because of its nice distributional properties. Something like a Sharpe Ratio does have this, although it does...

I guess you could say the market is in a constant state of flux at all time scales so there is unlikely to be any particular chart that is free of being in a constant state of change. One thing we do know is the prices and volumes, recorded and reported (expect for occasional glitches) are...

Sorry I don't have any informed opinion on the question you raise about the relative merits of differnt types of charts. David Aronson

You have raised some deep and relevant issues. The issue I deal with is quite fundamental....and it does take into account the amount of search that led to the discovery. Thus there is a greater bias if all 1, 2, 3.....up to 8 variable models are explored before picking a best. But again this...

Thanks. I gather you compute some performance statistic and then test to see if it is outside the luck band. When you do this for many such systems and consider eliminating some and retaining others, I gather you are using a test that takes into account the multiple comparisons involved. So...

Thanks for the title folks, but I have no Ph.d or masters degree. Maybe in the next life. David Aronson

Please don't feel you need to be gentle about what you say. I do agree people should have a look at the book to see if it what they had in mind. As to the value you have found in other books, what I wish to know is that. How do you determine if these tidbits have value? What I tried to offer...

Hi Steve - thanks for your comments. Actually the title was my idea. So don't blame Wiley for that. As to statistical software - I do mention the one product that I used that can be purchased , White's Reality Check. All other studies were done with software crafted by Tim Masters. The rule...

Actually I discuss two biases. There is the long/short position bias which is dealt with by detrending the market data before measuring the rule's profitability. The there is the data mining bias if the rule is discovered by testing many rules than then picking a best performer. In this...

Hello AMC - the price was set by Wiley. In such a niche area, this is the price they feel is required to give them a reasonable chance for a profit given the small potential audience. Also, I think they felt that for people who are in the business of trading, an idea that can save them trading...