Under most conditions I agree, which is why I usually don't trade it within two weeks of expiry. But go ahead and go back 3-4 years and show me a single instance where the front month switch was trading at $5.60 two days before expiry. August 2010 came close, and as expected also crashed...
:D
Sorry I didn't say anything.
Actually, it would've been hard to give a heads up on Friday because I didn't open the position until the last few minutes of trading when the MAR/APR overextended on the EOD convergence move. By this morning's open it had already printed $0.50 of what I...
Thanks. I'll be looking to buy the A/M/J fly if it nears $1.00 over the next couple days. Otherwise I will likely just start scaling into a short May/Jun position once it reaches $1.50
FYI, I have nothing in the front 3 switches as of now.
I am long JUN/JUL from $105 this morning, looking for 125. And short JUL/SEP from $160 a week or so ago, looking for 140.
You are correct in your ass-umption. I offset that short spread the next day.
[b]
In this case, the value of the fly was in both the direct hedge as well as the convergence gains. I've only seen that trade as good twice over the past couple years. But yes, I did really trade...
Actually, THE trade was short the MAR/APR/MAY fly EOD on friday. Much better IMO. As close to a sure thing as you are ever gonna see. Absolutely massive edge into expiration, with almost no risk.
Only posting it because it is gone now. I'm not as charitable as you I guess. :D
BTW, as a strong independent, I also thought the debate last night was decent. The entire field looked better than it has during the previous months. I thought the GOP was in an unfortunate situation, but now I'm thinking otherwise.
Actually, I believe that is only the case if you consider the national polls which have a significant flaw in them. They generally just gather a popular vote, but the election is all about the electorate. I held a similar opinion to the one you shared until I checked the electorate map...