Recent content by ButterflyEffect

So you are short TSLA at a 154 handle then? Adam, serpent, Eve...:)

MRNA is a stock I watch also. I just don't see the trade here long. To me, it is a bid up stock that is especially bid up on rate cut hopes from October. You can't short because of the embedded implied option of biotech. I don't know what you can be looking at that $103.90 is a good price...

The Giradian mimetic rivalry between you and Vic is a hand dealt face up in this thread. I don't think you are understanding though that I am interested in getting long TSLA exactly because you are winning this argument online at this moment. To invert, shorting TSLA here has a terrible...

It is not anger, Americans use the word "fuck" too flippantly. I even notice this with my Dad who is almost 80. It is like we are both trying to shock each other with the linguistic use of "fuck" but it is an arms race.

I love that. Personally, I have 4 different portfolios. Equity beta that is just indexed to the Nasdaq 100 through QQQ US Bond portfolio Market timing/trading portfolio Stock picking/ value investing portfolio. I hate losing money more than anything. I wish I was more of gambler. With that...

My second best trade of 2023 was TSLA long when Elon became some kind of media villain. I was trying to get short TSLA in December but it never quite got to the $270ish area to get filled. I think I was being a little too greedy and the confidence interval on my model was a little too much but...

New book I just got this week. I hate the syntax of R with a passion but this book is a good example of what makes R good. There is not much in terms of non-linear time series analysis for python let alone an entire book on the subject. If you hate R programming as much as I do, chatGPT4...

That looks pretty interesting. This Chance and Chaos book is just a terrible name. This is a phenomenal little book that I wish I found a long time ago. It is like a compact summary of the main ideas from probability and information theory as they relate to non-linear dynamics by a super...

I would contend this quote is 100% wrong. The way to drown in trading is to do what everyone else is doing. This idea seems patently obvious to me. When people are talking like Tesla is going out of business I am looking to take the other side of that, at the right price. The best part of...

I don't think I would be profitable trading options with the commissions, spread and I find the entire idea of time decay offensive. I missed the 154 handle this morning because of work or it would have been worth some kind of bet long.

Totally agree. I am using my own charting software that I just would not have had the patience to create because I find javascript/react tedious and uninteresting. With chatGPT's help it was basically trivial. It also acted as a force multiplier and not automation. My charting software has no...

The sentiment seems so negative right now that I was really debating a trade in the after market long at $160 but I just can't pull the trigger here with this Israeli response as such an unknown. Normal market conditions I think I am in on a swing trade trying to get back 10% on the long side...

I think this headline is quite bubbly . I was going to say, how can that be possible right now? "A Goldman Sachs representative told Business Insider the bank was still in the "early stages" of exploring AI technology, adding that it was "pleased" with the results it had seen so far. But...

It seems to me that the Iranian strategy must be to try to provoke an Israeli response that can be painted as going too far. If you zoom out and squint at what is going on, that seems to be the strategy overall. I also wonder what the cost was in $ to launch that attack vs what the cost was...

The peak might end up being right when we got the reports the attack was imminent on Friday. GC lost quite a bit in the afternoon on Friday. It is really a good example of what makes trading hard in that the market isn't going to wait for the event to happen and then price the event. The...