Recent content by Butterball

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    My Merger Arbitrage Journal

    Is anyone playing TWX - T after the court ruling? The spread has obviously collapsed but there's still some left according to my calc. "“We are pleased that, after conducting a full and fair trial on the merits, the Court has categorically rejected the government’s lawsuit to block our merger...
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    Best programming language for trading?

    Just start programming. Getting replies on a message board dissecting the "best language to learn" is a waste of time. Just get stuck in and learn.
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    My Merger Arbitrage Journal

    Some things I am looking at (no positions yet): XL (2.6% + div non-annualized) MPC-ANDV (1.7% non-annualized) CXO-RSPP (0.7% non-annualized) My positions: OA, PNK, AET, QCOM (still holding after it blew up), BGC, IPCC, KS, ORBK, MON (common + short puts)
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    Automated trading with R on IB

    https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/IBrokers/vignettes/IBrokers.pdf IBrokers - Interactive Brokers and R Jeffrey A. Ryan September 21, 2014 Yes 2014! Lazy idiot didn't bother to google his own question.
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    What does a trend follower do in a bear market?

    There are plenty of trend-followers who trade long only (in equities).
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    What Nassim Taleb Did on Black Monday 1987

    Here's a typical result of a long-dated OTM vol buying strategy betting on "black swans" over multiple asset classes. It's an expensive hope-and-pray-for-doom game:
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    Any place to get historic futures prices on VIX?

    You can find VIX (and other future data) on quandl.com for free. You need to 'stitch' the futures prices together. Some links to get you started on why that is important: http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2014/06/constructing-a-continuous-futures-series-from-quandl.html...
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    LJM Preservation and Growth Fund, collapsed by 82 percent! (WTF?)

    All those nice little premiums they picked up like nickels on the street. And then the gamma steamroller comes along and takes it all back. And then some.
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    16 year old new to trading

    Stop that now. It's counter productive. Work towards a top 1% SAT score. That's what you should focus on right now. Read. A lot. If you want to trade, no matter what style of investing or trading you choose, I recommend to read these books ONCE A YEAR. Each year, as you gain experience, you...
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    Is investing in real estate less time-consuming than stocks?

    Exchanged traded REITs have performed very similarly to physical real estate over decade long time periods. I'd understand if someone is a developer and can add value to property they can generate extra returns. For someone who purely buys real estate to rent it out passively it's hard to argue...
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    David Einhorn made only 2% gain in 2017

    Many legendary value investors got destroyed in the 1998/1999 period as value got trashed and growth stocks (which many shorted) soared higher and higher. Think long airlines and commodity stocks, short tech stocks. Look up the charts and you'll feel their pain. It took a few years until...
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    Is Warren Buffett blind to tail risks/risks of ruin?

    That's incorrect because the contracts are/were OTC and setup in a way that a) premium was paid upfront, about $5 bln. Berkshire was free to invest this as they saw fit. b) they were only valued at expiration dates, 10 to 20 years into the future (!). There were no daily, quarterly or annual...
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    boring stoxx50 futures

    Just quadruple your size. Suddenly it's not so boring anymore.
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    Boise ID looking for mentor

    Trading is for people who HAVE money (to lose). Not for people who NEED money. You sound like you need a stable income so go work somewhere.
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    What is the craziest mistake you've ever made trading?

    I bought 65 x 10y € swap contracts on the European ICE early mornings, must have been 2011/2012. Being tired and half-awke, I just saw the market was open and entered my order. What I didn't see was the bid/ask was 200 bps wide in pre-market. So I overpaid 100 bps on 65 contracts = down €65k. I...
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