Recent content by badlucktrades

Thanks for the idea of a laddered trade. I never considered doing that. I dont think i am ready to tie that much capital in at once and it hasnt hit those price levels to open up the strikes. As for the calls, it leaves a lot of upside risk, especially if i am not put the shares.

I think they are about 70% correlated to USO. I have two technical possibilities here: 1) Oil goes down to $24 area. 2) Oil goes down to $10 area. I don't follow oil too much in terms of major events or how it reacts. I've never been good at predicting this. However, what I have heard is -...

XEG is a Canadian ETF for energy sector. It currently pays a dividend. Some of its heavy hitter allocations are SU @24% CNQ @18% CVE @ 8% =50% remaining is smaller companies at about 2% or less. I'm assuming that - IF the entire canadian energy sector gets wiped out due to extremely low oil...

Well yeah, but isnt the higher % of success what we are aiming for? The pay off is a decent % too. But this IC, its not 1 dte?

Those arent good odds. So if you flip it, You have 83% chance of a profit zone then.

Thanks for the response. How do you figure there there's a 50-50? are you just basing that off of the 2:1 Reward to risk? So a 50% chance that it hits full profit of 1.50. Does this account for the probability of B.E as well? If not, this would give a better than 50% chance of success no...

Other than slippage, are there any other reasons? I guess IV /IV rank would effect whether you do a credit/debit spread with the same pay out, but are there differences between two debit spreads with the same payout/ risk i.e anything butterfly.

No it is covered. But I think i picked a bad example. The difference between a short butterfly, shortput butterfly, reverse iron butterfly, etc.

I havent been able to find any information on whether different strategies with the same risk profiles i.e same PnL graphs differ in success rate. When would you use one over the other? Example, Why would you opt for a bull call debit spread over a bull put spread if they have the same...

Haven't posted in a while, what are your thoughts on the following trade? I placed this trade today as a gamble. Didn't really expect much volatility today, but just wanted to see how the trade could play out if its a losing trade, with none of the following happening. Ended up closing for a...

Yeah no worries. The zooming I didnt like just because your losses are capped or either unlimited, so to me it doesnt make sense to be able to zoom all the way out until the the graph is tiny. But other than that, i like it, just the UI could use some work.

Yes I've used it. I found problems with the following. Don't take this offensively, just giving you some insight into what I found not user friendly. 1) I think you should rename "volume" to position size or something that signifies contract/shares. volume means something else to most people...