Recent content by athabasca

I've this nagging feeling the ADP survey is there to rig the game for the Wall St.

If what is happening right now is a bear flag, ~1303 on the SPX should be the upper limit. Prints above that validates inverse H&S and that would push it up another 40 pts or so. If the bear flag gets validated, we're talking high 1100s.

As impressive as today's upside jamming session was, we're still within the range in which we've been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. I also see some conflicting signals between a big H&S spanning between March and May (at whose neckline we're currently sitting) and a smaller inverse H&S...

Gotta respect the buyers at the moment.

Gosh, I'm still obsessed with the idea of us flushing down to the 30-40s. So long as we stay below yesterday's peak I'll be, as we seem to have successively formed two lower highs (and thus 3 peaks) since the Bernanke announcement. I'm referring to continuous chart (I've one showing 240 min)...

This is how I trade: create a bunch of biases about how I think the market will move, set risk parameters or reversal points and try to take profits here and there and if possible, let it run. (Today's was up premarket --> down to 200 MA --> rip --> weakness, which turned out to be wrong (I...

That's it, short bias is dead.

Jesus, keep playing the devil's advocate. Who said anything about holy grail? There's no such a thing. My long time observation just says rule of thumb is 50 MA is good for 5 pt fade and 200 about 10 and 20 MA is good for shit. 200 differs slightly if you use futures' or index's and also if...

We bounced very strongly off of 200 MA level today (I say level because different vendors have slightly different values), which is usually good for about 10 pts. If institutions are sellers currently, they will step in around the 10 MA level which is where we are right now. Overall though...

NDX is too strong to be shorting against the trend at this time. Edit: I see 75-ish zone as pivotal because of the 10 MA on the daily. We are also in the Friday's opening range. Heck, this could get really angry and fly up to 80s. Changing my bias and monitoring.

Time to revisit the tsunami low Edit: ugh, looks like they want to do a double top.

Too many shorts at around this level it seems. Better to wait for an extreme squeeze before the big flush through 200 MA (probably low-mid 70s some time in the late afternoon). I'll be quite bullish short-term after we do that though.

Hmm, even if we get a pennant, which would be the most defensive bearish stance at the moment, I'd think the upside is capped at 74 right now, and anything above that would be neutral/bullish. But then again, I'm just talking my position right now. :D

Intraday H&S since the gap down. Unless we somehow grind up above 73 I'm expecting 40s either today or Monday.

Yep, you're right -- can't stay short when other risky assets are making higher highs.