Recent content by AT99

Last year I used a $15k account (real trades) to see how long until I could double it. I was doing some overnight and weekly trades. Overnight just too risky and is where I had most losses. Weeklies worked well. I hit a double in August. October I started doing more monthlies when market got...

Glad to see this forum has the ignore user button for those who have nothing productive to add.

I have done this consistently with good results. It is not blindly entering a trade every week. You need to avoid more volatile weeks such as those with FOMC announcements or exit early for smaller gains that week. You also need to look at charts and know if we are near key support /...

arnyc, that is a good question. There is definitely no one right way to estimate where a stock may be going. In fact, with the strategy I was showing you I try to estimate where I think the stock won't be (not where it is going) and then try to stay outside that range. I use charts and...

Looking at an April 17th BuPS today, here is how the numbers look using prior CMG close of $665.97, current VIX of 15.83, a VIX adjustment of 1.3, and 16 trading days until expiration. 90% of the past 16 day moves (when VIX was below 21), CMG has not pierced $605 over the holding period. The...

What I do is to look at how much a stock has moved over a similar time frame and try to pick strikes with a 90%-95% success rate. I limit it to historical periods when volatility is similar to today as measured by VIX. I do this mainly for SPX and AAPL trades, but just loaded some CMG data for...

I am looking for 2 things with this strategy. 1. Opportunities where I feel there is an upside bias but if wrong there is very limited downside. From what I've read, best time would be prior to earnings or another company event you feel could move the stock substantially higher. 2. I...

Just closed some of the ones sold for a .01 credit for .20 credit = .21 gain. 7% return in a week. I wanted to close some prior to the FOMC announcement.

Here is one I am watching for 3/27 - 4/10 expirations. However, waiting until after FOMC for putting it on and will most likely be adjusting strikes. I also would like to see premium drop... IV on the short call probably elevated going into the FOMC here...

I thought a ratio back spread used the same expiration date? But so many variations and what people call strategies it is definitely tough to keep track of them.

I always enjoy testing new option strategies and someone recently asked me to look into Victory Spreads. The advantage is it can pay off if the underlying stock goes sideways or up and has a limited downside. I have been analyzing how it works with SPY. In this spread you sell a call a few...

If I am doing a trade over a few months and very confident of a move up, I will also do bull call spreads (buy an ITM call / sell a higher call with same expiration date). If the stock happens to dip, but I still feel very strongly about the upside, I will buy back the short call for gain and...

Open a long position of an ITM option (further out dat) and then sell a covered call (shorter time frame) at a higher strike against it for a little hedge. For example, if you thought AAPL had a good chance of moving up $10 between now and June: Buy June 120 call for 11.50 (delta .68 now) Sell...

Danny, not sure what time period you are looking at. Here are a couple of things that may help. This has a lot of various time periods for SPX moves both in % moves and $ moves. This goes back to Jan 2012. https://www.dropbox.com/s/5p8xwnexe5zft8h/SPX%20Tables.pdf?dl=0 This will show you...