Recent content by ashcroftsinger

in my opinion, the question mark to market vs mark to model is important when market and or model is "incorrect". in a orderly market, with valid models, marking to either should be fine. however, when one or both act incorrectly, prudent thing to do is to mark to the error that is the market...

i can see that as a reversion to the mean applied to a trading system/ equity curve. But my point is that there could be valuable information in the feedback that the equity curve is providing you for your trading method itself. The closest parallel that i can think of is the commonly...

interesting idea. hadnt thought about this before. if you have an as yet unknown deficiency in your trading method that makes it weak under certain conditions in the market, it could get reflected in your equity crossing below the moving average. Reducing size and frequency of trades under...

interesting response. we may be getting somewhere with this. If you are able to quantify and mathematically represent the recurring patterns that result from herd behaviour, and i promise not to call it TA, will you be ok with that?

Surf, Are you saying 1. TA techniques are not testable 2. When tested, TA techniques have no validity. These are two entirely different issues at various philosophical levels

not sure whether this is what you need. Try this Insert three columns between G and H in your sheet (i.e. before the P&L Column) Add these formulae and copy it down On cell H2: =IF(G3<>"",0,IF(F3<>"",H3+1,H3)) On cell I2: =E2-E3 On cell J2: =H2*I2 On cell k2: =J2+K3

I think whatever you do, you should wear a shirt, otherwise it may send wrong signals ps. in general i dont like to post a reply that does not help at all, but i cant pass this up. please excuse

great call

If you add an element of symmetry to your comparison, 2000 had a dribble down move after an explosive up move, while this seems like the start of an explosive down move after a dribble up move. Having said that, P/Es are way better now than 2000, and statistically, a bounce of 2-4% has more than...

statistically there is some backup for your reversal call, but i think V bottoms typically mark an end of a downtrend, not at the top of an uptrend

i do not see any supporting reasoning in this thread on why this view about randomness of trading methods is any superior than the views of others on non-randomness of their trading methods.

point taken. good luck with your venture. not an excuse, but the way you started the thread and came back to it with a commercial solicitation didnt leave a good impression. again, i shouldnt have assumed bad intentions, good luck and have a great weekend

i guess this means, trading is neither art nor science, but business?

if you believe some patterns (or market conditions) are more bullish (or bearish) than others scaling in and scaling out follows

Based on this observation, you have two potential inferences(amongst many) - The coin may not be fair, and hence there is more than 50% chance that it will turn heads again, or the coin is fair, and the next throw will have equal chance of a head or a tail. IMO there is some value in the first...