Recent content by aex

python is good for beginners. you can even do a "machine learning for trading with python" course for free on udacity after you grasp the basics. if you want to start with R, datacamp has some courses for trading

I think the definition of terrorism should be modified to "the use of violence and intimidation in the pursuit of political aims or financial gain"

not even Bill Lipschutz? or was that still variance? I am just curious of your opinion. I don't have one on this matter.

Thank you very much Martin!

On fred.stlouisfed.gov there are two types of gdp data: seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. Can anyone please explain the difference and how they are calculated? Also I am struggling to understand quarterly data. Why will there be 3 different news regarding q4? (in january...

Well I don't believe the polls in the first place, but I thought Nates statement had some decent logic in it. leaving that aside, I won't be surprised at all if Trump wins.

Or maybe he is just stating the obvious if indeed undecided are much higher than normal

Just thought I'd drop this here https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/010711.pdf

I wouldn't consider using those kelly approximations. The basic kelly is the real deal imo and if it offers a larger percentage than the comfort level, I would use fractions of that.

I can't find any reference to another kelly formula besides the original one in probability related sites.

I haven't read the threads on Kelly on this forum. The classic Kelly is the only one I have ever heard of. I was wondering if it is reasonable to apply Kelly criterion on such a small sample of trades, so my first thought was to calculate sigma (standard deviation , considering the implied...

I saw that chart here, among others

I think the concept of edge comes from probability theory. Each bet with a predifined reward to risk ratio has a mathematical edge if the implied probability of the bet is lower than the real probability for the outcome. If you bet on flipping coins with a reward bigger than the risk, you have...

Any recommendations? Most brokers offer solutions for android and iOs but I don't know any for Windows phone.